EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8840 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. As long as 0.8728 support holds, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8840 will extend the rebound from 0.8617 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9101 to 0.8617 at 0.8916. Break will pave the way back to 0.9101 key resistance. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.8728 will argue that rebound from 0.8617 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this low.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). The medium term range is set between 0.8620 and 0.9101. Downside breakout of 0.8620 will pave the way back to 0.8312 support . Break of 0.9101 will bring retest of 0.9304/5 resistance.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
