EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.9097 last week but reversed and dropped sharply since then. For now, the cross is still held in near term rising channel and thus there is no indication of reversal yet. On the upside, above 0.8992 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9097 first. However, sustained break of channel support, followed by break of 0.8895, will argue that whole rise from 0.8620 has completed. And consider that it’s not clearly impulsive in structure, break of 0.8895 will also suggest reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we’re not too confident on it yet. In any case, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
