EUR/CHF’s decline last week indicates medium term topping at 1.1832, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Fall from 1.1832 is now seen as correcting rise from 1.0629. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372. On the upside, above 1.1684 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1832 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, a medium term should be in place at 1.1832. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
