EUR/CHF still didn’t succeed in breaking out of converging range last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9331 will target 0.9305 support first. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9444 will bring stronger rally to 0.9506 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 is seen as part of the long term down trend. Repeated rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 0.9410) keeps outlook bearish for breaking through 0.9209 low at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will confirm medium term bottoming at 0.9209 and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.9928 key resistance.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
