EUR/CHF’s decline form 0.9928 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 0.9352. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.9928 to 0.94767 from 0.9772 at 0.9320.Strong support could emerge above 0.9252 low to bring rebound. But near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.9519 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration argues that medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 0.9928 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
