EUR/CHF’s break of 0.9832 support argues that rebound form 0.9407 has completed at 1.0095 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for deeper fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Sustained break there will bring deeper fall to retest 0.9407 low. On the upside, above 0.9860 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.9910) holds.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.0011) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.0095 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, it’s still way too early too call for bullish trend reversal with upside capped well below 55 month EMA and 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low). The multi-decade down trend could still continue.
