EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after edging lower to 0.9407 last week. But upside is limited below 0.9712 resistance so far. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9712 will argue that fall from 0.9864 has completed totally at 0.9407, and bring stronger rally back to this résistance. Further break there will carry larger bullish implication. Nevertheless, break of 0.9548 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.9407 low first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9864 resistance holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2008 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. However, firm break of 0.9864 will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rally would then be seen back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.0188).
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low).
