EUR/CHF’s down trend continued to 0.9804 last week but turned sideway since then. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0044 resistance. Break of 0.9804 will resume larger down trend to 0.9650 long term projection level.
In the bigger picture,long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0808).
