EUR/CHF’s down trend continued last week and hit as low as 0.9864. But a temporary low was formed with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.0216 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.9864 will target 0.9650 long term projection level.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA affirmed medium term bearishness. Long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0808).
