EUR/CHF edged lower to 1.0216 last week, but recovered quickly since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further fall is in favor as long as 1.0349 resistance holds. Break of 1.0216 support will reaffirm the case that corrective rebound from 0.9970 has completed at 1.0513. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.0086 support next. However, above 1.0349 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.0513 resistance.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0851).
