EUR/CHF’s fall from 1.0400 extended lower last week but turned sideway after hitting 1.0129. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Rebound from 0.9970 might have completed at 1.0400 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9970 at 1.0420. . Further fall is in favor as long as 1.0242 minor resistance holds. Below 1.0129 will target a retest on 0.9970 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.0242 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0400 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0891).
