EUR/CHF’s down trend resumed last week and dipped to 1.0298, but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited well below 1.0510 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0298 will extend the down trend from 1.1149 to 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200 next.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.0967) maintains long term bearishness. Down trend from 1.2004 is now in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650.
