EUR/CHF’s rebounded from 1.0324 short term bottom extended to 1.0510 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another rise cannot be ruled out yet. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.0936 to 1.0324 at 1.0558. On the downside, firm break of 1.0423 will bring retest of 1.0324 low. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.1149.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.0967) maintains long term bearishness. Down trend from 1.2004 is now in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650.
