EUR/CHF’s strong rebound last week suggests that a short term bottom was already formed at 1.0324, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0474). Sustained break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0936 to 1.0324 at 1.0558. On the downside, below 1.0397 minor support will bring retest of 1.0324 low instead.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1015) maintains long term bearishness. Down trend from 1.2004 is now in progress for 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650.
