EUR/CHF’s rebound from 1.0863 extended to 1.0974 last week, but retreated ahead of channel resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook stays bearish as long as 1.1026 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0930 minor support will bring retest of 1.0863 low. Break there will resume whole fall from 1.1149. On the upside, break of 1.1026 will be the first sign of near term bullish reversal.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 1.0505 might be completed at 1.1149 already. Rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1077) at least keeps medium term bearishness open. Sustained break of 1.0737 support will argue that the down trend from 2004 (2018 high) is ready to resume through 1.0505 low. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.0879) will affirm this bearish case. Nevertheless, strong support from 55 week EMA will revive the case for resuming the rise from 1.0505 at a later stage.
