EUR/CHF’s fall from 1.1034 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Further fall is expected this week to 1.0811 key support. Decisive break there will long term down trend. On the upside, break of 1.0905 resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.0811 with another rising leg. In any case, upside should be limited by 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065) to bring larger down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
