EUR/CHF dropped to 1.0863 last week but formed a bottom ahead of 1.0811 low and rebounded strongly. Consolidation pattern from 1.0811 is likely extending with another rising leg. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for further rise. But we’d still expect strong resistance from 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065) to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0863 will target 1.0811 low.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
