EUR/CHF stayed in tight range below 1.1059 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. We’d continue to expect strong resistance from 1.1062 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0811 at 1.1065) to limit upside to complete the consolidation pattern from 1.0811. On the downside, break of 1.0974 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.0811 low. However, sustained break of 1.1062/5 will carry larger bullish implication and bring stronger rise.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2004 is (2018 high) is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Further fall should be seen to 1.0629 support and possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.1162 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
