EUR/CHF gyrated inside range of 1.1310/1444 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 1.1310 support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume the rebound from 1.1181 to 1.1501 key resistance next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1310 will suggest that rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.
In the long term picture, as long as key support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 holds, A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium to long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
