EUR/AUD’s extended rebound last week suggests that corrective fall from 1.7180 has completed with three waves down to 1.6002, after drawing support from 1.5996. But as a temporary top was formed after hitting 1.6598, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.6351 resistance turned support. Above 1.6598 will resume the rise from 1.6002 to 61.8% retracement of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6730 next. Sustained trading above there will pave the way to retest 1.7180 high.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 (2023 high) at 1.6000), up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6022) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
