EUR/AUD’s last break of 1.6351 resistance last week suggests that rebound from 1.6002 is resuming. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 38.2% of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6452. Decisive break there should confirm that whole fall from 1.7180 has completed with three waves down to 1.6002, after being supported by 1.5996. On the downside, though, break of 1.6132 will bring retest of 1.6002 instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 (2023 high) at 1.6000), up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6015) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
