EUR/AUD’s extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.6256 has completed at 1.6629 already. Nevertheless, as a temporary low was formed at 1.6315, initial bias is neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6629 resistance holds. Below 1.6315 will bring retest of 1.6256. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.7180 and target 61.8% projection of 1.7180 to 1.6256 from 1.6629 at 1.6058.
In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.7180 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5999) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
