EUR/AUD retreated after edging higher to 1.6629 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. For now, the favored case remains that corrective fall from 1.7180 has completed at 1.6256 already. On the upside, above 1.6629 will resume the rebound for retesting 1.7180 high. However, firm break of 1.6457 minor support will dampen this week and turn bias back to the downside for 1.6256 again.
In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up by the deeper than expected fall from 1.7180. Yet as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.7180 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5999) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
