EUR/AUD failed to break through 1.6843 resistance decisively last week and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some more consolidations first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.6843/4 will resume the rebound from 1.6319 for retesting 1.7062 high next. On the downside, however, below 1.6631 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6449 support instead.
In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.
In the longer term picture, loss of upside momentum as seen in 55 W MACD at this stage argues that rise from 1.4281 (2022 low) is more likely a corrective move. Further rise could still be seen as long as 1.5846 support holds. But upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691. Firm break of 1.5846 support will argue that the rise has completed, and another medium term down leg has started.
