EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.6134 extended higher last week and the development argues that correction from 1.6785 has completed, after drawing support from 55 D EMA. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.6356 minor support holds, to retest 1.6785 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.6309 minor support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.6134 support again.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.4281 (2022 low). Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.7691 next. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5976 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
In the longer term picture, it’s still early to decide if rise from 1.4281 is resuming whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Attention will be paid on the structure on the current rally to make an assessment later.
