EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5685 last week but turned into consolidation then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.5165 support to bring another rally. Break of 1.5685 will resume the rise from 1.4281 and target 161.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.4965 from 1.4716 at 1.5823 next.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.
In the longer term picture, breach of 55 month EMA (now at 1.5613) raises the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Focus is back on 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.7691.
