EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.4281 short term bottom extended further to 1.4880 last week. But a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.4880 will resume the rebound towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4564 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5588) holds.
