EUR/AUD’s steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.4318 has completed as a corrective move to 1.5396, after rejection by 1.5354 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.4759 support first. Sustained break there will affirm this bearish case and bring retest of 1.4318 low. On the upside, above 1.5043 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5398), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5694) holds.
