EUR/AUD rose further to 1.5277 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.4982 support will argue that rebound from 1.4318 has completed as a three wave corrective move. That came after missing 1.5354 support turned resistance and 100% projection of 1.4318 to 1.5053 from 1.4597 at 1.5332. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.4597 support first. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.5332/54 will argue that the larger trend is reversing. Next target is 161.8% projection at 1.5786.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).
