EUR/AUD retreated after edging higher to 1.5053 last week. But downside is contained by 1.4687 so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.5053 will resume the rebound from 1.4318 to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495. However, firm break of 1.4687 will argue that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 1.4318 low.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).
