EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5559 accelerated to as high as 1.6223 last week. Break of 1.6168 resistance confirmed resumption of whole rise from 1.5354. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.5354 to 1.6168 from 1.5559 at 1.6373 next. On the downside, below 1.6032 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733
