After some initial struggles, EUR/AUD’s rally accelerated to as high as 1.1618 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for further rally. With 161.8% projection of 1.5354 to 1.5743 from 1.5446 at 1.6075 taken out, next target is 1.6434 high. On the downside, below 1.5968 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low first. Further rise could be seen through 1.6434 towards 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 1.5747) will turn focus back to 1.5250 low instead.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733
