EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.6434 short term top extended lower last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 1.5898 support. Sustained break there will indicate that corrective rise from 1.5250 has already completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5250 low. On the upside, break of 1.6116 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6434 high instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.
