EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6827 resumed last week and reached as low as 1.6040. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Decisive break of 1.6033 low will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.6872 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5984. On the upside, above 1.6178 minor resistance will indicate some support from 1.6033 and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price action from 1.9799 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. The question is whether it’s a sideway pattern or a deep correction. On the downside, sustained break of 1.6033 will suggest it’s the latter case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. On the upside, break of 1.6827 resistance will favor the former case and bring stronger rebound.
In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5847) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.
