EUR/AUD stayed consolidation above 1.6144 temporary low last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Still, further fall is expected with 1.6374 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.6144 will target retest of 1.6033 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.9799. On the upside, break of 1.6374 resistance will turn bias to the upside, and extend the consolidation pattern from 1.6033 with another rising leg.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6459) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.
In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5838) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.
