EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.4421 resumed by taking out 1.4964 last week. Overall bullish near term outlook is unchanged. That is, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.5073 resistance first. Firm break there will likely resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.4824 support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.4564 support instead.
In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.
