EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation from 1.6033 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and more range trading could be seen. Overall, outlook will remain bearish for another decline as long as 1.6586 resistance holds. Break of 1.6033 will resume the whole fall from 1.9799, towards long term EMA at 1.5792. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.6585 resistance should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) might have completed at 1.9799. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792). Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This will remain the preferred case now as long as 1.6586 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5792) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.
