EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5894 extended higher last week. Break of 1.6231 resistance dampened our original bearish view. It suggests that pull back from 1.6448 has completed at 1.5894 already. Initial bias stays on the upside for 1.6448 first. Break will resume the rally from 1.5683 for 1.6765 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6256 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.6108 support holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.
