EUR/AUD recovered further to 1.6231 last week but reversed since then. With 1.6259 minor resistance intact, near term bearishness is retained. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.6025 will resume the fall from 1.6448. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.6765 high. Next target will be 1.5683 support and below.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.
