EUR/AUD turned into consolidation below 1.6262 last week but near term bullish outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some more sideway trading. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.5683 to 1.6262 at 1.6041 to bring rise resumption. Current development argues that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, break of 1.6262 will pave the way to retest 1.6765 high.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.
