EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.3624 accelerated to as high as 1.4909 last week. The strong break of 1.4721 resistance confirmed our view of trend reversal. That is the whole decline form 1.6587 has completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support level. Further rally is now expected to next fibonacci level at 1.5455.
Initial bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside this week. Current rally should now target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. On the downside, touching 1.4649 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained by 1.4442 support and bring rise resumption.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.
