Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8073; (P) 0.8095; (R1) 0.8118; More…
While AUD/USD continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of reversal yet. As long as 0.8003 support holds, further rally is expected. Sustained break of 0.8124 resistance will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. However, on the downside, break of 0.8003 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And in such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7836).
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside and bring reversal.
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