Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7647; (P) 0.7668; (R1) 0.7697; More…
AUD/USD is trying to draw support from 4 hour 55 EMA for the moment but recovery is weak. Intraday bias stays on the downside first. As noted before, rebound from 0.7490 should have completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.7490 support. Break there will confirm completion of whole rise from 0.7158. On the upside, above 0.7748 will resume the rise from 0.7158. But in that case, we’d expect upside to be limited by 0.7849/50 cluster resistance to bring reversal. That level represents 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 and key long term retracement level at 0.7849.
In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.
