AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6130 short term bottom extended higher last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6347) and above. But strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6130 at 0.6440 to limit upside to complete this corrective rebound. On the downside, break of 0.6252 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6130 low.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6545) holds.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6846) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. However, this view is subject to adjustment if current decline accelerates further.
 and above. But strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6130 at 0.6440 to limit upside to complete this corrective rebound. On the downside, break of 0.6252 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6130 low.){kind=link}