AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6687 last week but was rejected by 55 D EMA (now at 0.6681). Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. For now, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.6551 short term bottom holds. Above 0.6687 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6511 at 0.6777. On the downside, break of 0.6511 will resume the fall from 0.6941 instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Firm of 0.7156 resistance will argue that the third leg has already started towards 0.8006.
. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. For now, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.6551 short term bottom holds. Above 0.6687 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6511 at 0.6777. On the downside, break of 0.6511 will resume the fall from 0.6941 instead.){kind=link}