AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6941 continued last week and the break of 0.6621 resistance suggest near term bearish reversal. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 next. On the upside, above 0.6694 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Firm of 0.7156 resistance will argue that the third leg has already started towards 0.8006.
