AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6468 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6468 will resume the decline from 0.6870 to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
