AUD/USD stayed in consolidation above 0.6524 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is expected. On the downside, firm break of 0.6524 support will argue that whole rebound from 0.6269 has completed, and bring deeper fall to this support. On the upside, break of 0.6639 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
