AUD/USD’s steep decline last week mixed up the near term outlook. But for now, further fall is in favor this week as long as 0.6740 minor resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625. On the upside, above 0.6740 will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 for now. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) raises the chance that it’s in progress. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall form 0.7156. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.
In the long term picture, focus is back on 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119), which is relatively close to 0.7156 resistance. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for resuming the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) at a later stage. However, sustained break there will argue that the trend has reversed, and rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be on track to resume.
