AUD/USD’s rally and break of 0.6817 resistance indicates that corrective decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6457 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 0.7156 high next. On the downside, below 0.6806 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.7156 could have completed in a three wave corrective structure at 0.6457. The development argues that rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7156 will also add to the case that whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has finished and turn medium term outlook bullish. For now this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6688) holds, even in case of deep pull back.
In the long term picture, focus is back on 55 M EMA (now at 0.7119), which is relatively close to 0.7156 resistance. Rejection by this level will maintain medium term bearishness for resuming the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) at a later stage. However, sustained break there will argue that the trend has reversed, and rise from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be on track to resume.
